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How Advisor works — the full breakdown

Every served probability is logged, graded nightly against final box scores, and re-validated weekly. Advisor modes are the subsets of tonight's slate that the graded record says are worth acting on.

🎓 Value — "where is the price wrong?"

Hits market only. Graded record: hits at 7%+ edge returned +7.9% ROI; HR got worse the more we disagreed with the market (−25% → −69%) — the market out-predicts our HR model, so HR/SO stay excluded until their record clears them.
Calibrated probability only (isotonic-calibrated: served ≈ realized, 66.2% vs 64.0% on top signals).
Live price required, and edge ≥ 7% (model prob − 1 ÷ decimal odds). Smaller edges lost after vig in every bucket.
Healthy: anything beyond day-to-day strips the pick.
Stake = quarter-Kelly: 0.25 × edge ÷ (odds − 1) of bankroll (typically 2–4%; quartered while the validating sample is small).
⚠ = pregame: probability assumes the projected lineup holds.

🎯 Performance — "who is most likely to hit?"

Calibrated probability ≥ 66% — the top tier, where served ≈ realized.
Confirmed lineup required — "likely to hit" is meaningless for a scratched bat (68.9% confirmed vs 28.6% not). No ⚠ state exists here.
No price needed — built for parlay legs and confidence plays. A 🎯 pick is not automatically a value bet; the book usually prices these correctly, which is why 🎓 exists separately.
On the Consensus Board, 🎯 uses the outcome-trained blend (which also embeds weakspots, Ghost Ranks, DAT, Target Tracking, patterns and fit); here it uses ProjectionAI's own calibrated number.

Both badges together — high probability and a 7%+ price edge — is the strongest position the system can express.

An empty list is normal. Most days most picks fail the gates — showing nothing is the discipline. Eligible picks are snapshotted daily and graded, so the thresholds keep re-validating on evidence.

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